" Italy risks to collapse in 2014 " A. Evans Pritchard
An exclusive interview with Daily Telegraph Economics Columnist
The second part of the Interview of A. Evans Pritchard.
For the first one: http://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews.php?idx=6&pg=5968
What is happening today in France is an exact repetition of the factors that the country has experienced from 1934 to 1936, when with the Gold Standard country was in a state of deflation, mass unemployment and had no resources to re-start. Data have come to an unsustainable level during t Laval presidency in 1935 and has resulted in a revolutionary political change in 1936: the victory of the Popular Front. France is now in a situation similar to 1935, with economic data continuing to worsen from month to month, and a turn as that of 1936 is approaching. Just look at the power of the Protestants in Britain or the growing results of the National Front to understand it.
- It will be Le Pen to impress this change?
The rise of the National Front is incredible, but I do not think that they will ever take power. What happens, however, will be just as revolutionary, as it will force the other parties, especially the Gaullists, to change their policy. The Le Pen program is clear: immediate exit from the euro - with the French Treasury proposing an agreement with German creditors, if they will not accept France shall return the same to the franc and the main losses will be for Germany - and then referendum on the EU on the English model. These are topics that meet the sympathy of a growing number of people across the board and other parties can no longer ignore them. The National Front is forcing the other parties to change their agenda and realize that they cannot just have the same opinion of Berlin and Brussels.
- In many countries we are witnessing the merger of conservative and socialist parties defending the austerity of Brussels and being against the voting intentions of the electorate. The vote of the national parliaments on the laws of stability now no longer matters and governments expect only the approval of the Commission. Finally, countries are indebting themselves to finance inter-governmental organizations such as the ESM, who will take key decisions for the lives of people in the coming years and inside having no transparency mechanisms and democratic control. But what is becoming the European Union?
The difficulty today is to understand why the creation of the various instruments of federal cohesion decided by the EU have created a so dysfunctional system. The fundamental problem is the lack of control of tax and spending by a democratically elected parliament . It is no coincidence that the English Civil War began in 1640 when the king tried to remove these powers to the Parliament or the American Revolution broke out when this power has been removed from London to states such as Virginia and Massachusetts , who exercised by time . These are Anglo-Saxon examples, but there are many others of how the foundations of democracy reside in the control of the budget and taxes by a government elected by the people . What is happening to the EU , on the contrary , the attempt to give the management of these to supranational entities and structures , which have no basis with no Parliament . It’s extremely dangerous and clearly anti- democratic .
The argument that is often used in its defense is that it is a first undemocratic step, needed to complete the federation following the U.S. model . The American system would be the logical model to be imitated , but it is not feasible : there is no political consensus among European citizens and for the U.S. , there were systems , institutions and traditions completely different. François Heisbourg in his most recent book focuses perfectly this point : you can ot create a political union with the goal of saving the euro. It 's ridiculous . The federation should be subject to the great ideals that shape a society and not to save a coin. Countries must return to the social reality as soon as possible and not have to think about financial engineering instruments to make something work that cannot work.
- The referendum wanted by Cameron to renegotiate the participation of the United Kingdom to the EU finds favor with a growing number of countries, especially in northern Europe. What do you expect from this English vote?
The first reaction in Europe when Cameron launched the referendum was to define the Brit " stupid suicides." The argument was that London would lose the market and it would be resigned to the economic decline. These are ridiculous arguments . People who have still well understood how the European Union function, such as those with which I was confronted at the Ambrosetti Conference in Como in September, know that the exit of the UK would be a disaster, but not for London, for the EU . The European project is based on three legs , one of which is Great Britain , Holland and the Scandinavian countries . And without one of these , the EU is over, because the internal chemistry would change and it would be particularly difficult, especially for France to maintain the subtle balance with Germany. The British decision is a huge warning in Brussels : the integration has gone too far beyond the will of the people and the people want some powers back . The European Constitution was rejected by a referendum in France and the Netherlands. The treaties were not put to the recent judgment of the people , except in Ireland, but forcing her to vote until acceptance . This stage who proceed without public involvement is over. This kind of arrogance is over.
- In may of next year there will be elections for the European Parliament, a key test for political parties and movements skeptical towards Brussels. Will EU ever be the same?
As an economics scholar I find difficult to answer it. I can say that today the greatest danger for the countries of Southern Europe is called deflationary crisis, which could soon turn into an economic depression able to make out of control the trajectory of debt / GDP ratio . It 's a potential disaster . In this context , politics must set the goal of the return of a number of sovereign powers delegated to Brussels and the European elections next may will be a potentially momentous event : the skeptical parties of the institutional architecture could be first in a number of countries - the UKIP in Britain , the National Front in France, the Five Star Movement in Italy, SYRIZA in Greece and in other countries - and it will be a chance for people to express their annoyance and frustration against the choices from Brussels. An important political block will destroy this " artificial myth " that is built : the EU will never be the same and will be forced to be less ambitious and understand that many of its prerogatives must return to the national states. The governments of Italy , Spain, France should take back full control of the lives of their citizens and not think about enlargement to Ukraine or Turkey . This is the last battle.